We are not Ukraine.
It's a comprehensive message from Filipino officials, saying they are confident they have full US support despite dramatic changes in President Trump's foreign policy, including a spectacular explosion with Ukrainian leaders. Their confidence comes from the fact that both Washington and Manila have a common enemy, China, they say.
While Trump is caught up in a trade war with China, the Philippines is involved in an increasingly tense standoff with China in the South China Sea over Beijing's vast territorial claims. Manila's greatest deterrent against China is its mutual defense treaty with the United States. Last month, Washington recovered roughly $400 million in military aid to the Philippines, which had been suspended as part of Trump's freezing foreign aid.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Theodoro Jr., in an interview in Manila on Tuesday hours after Trump halted military aid to Ukraine, said it was “the best evidence” linking the two countries.
Over the past few weeks, Teodoro and his colleagues have spoken with members of Trump's cabinet and have received assurances that Washington continues to be committed to the Philippine defence treaty.
“They're the ones who are in the process of meeting Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz,” said Theodoro, who flew to Washington in January to meet up with Trump's national security adviser, “We're not a fan of the world.”
But Trump has shown an eagerness to tear off the alliance decades ago. He imposed tariffs on Canada, weakened Europe and rejected NATO. He has not publicly addressed his relationship with the Philippines or the broader Indo-Pacific, but his actions sparked unrest here.
“We have to prepare for the day the US can withdraw from the South China Sea,” said former Supreme Court judge Antonio Carpio, whose Philippine landmark international ruling against China over allegations in the South China Sea.
Beijing claims about 90% of the South China Sea, some of which are also claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines. Manila is at the forefront of territorial battles, saying that Chinese ships are not only adding to the fishing zone, but also blocking oil and gas deposits in waters in exclusive economic zones.
These tensions have escalated dramatically in recent years, increasing the risk that Washington could be drawn into conflict.
President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. embraced the United States and reversed the pivot of his predecessor towards China. And he expanded access to military bases, including those facing Taiwan, another flash point between Washington and Beijing.
Last April, Washington deployed a missile system called a Tita to the Philippines as part of its joint military training. Ground-based launchers can launch cruise missiles that can reach mainland China from the Philippines.
The United States has a vested interest in maintaining freedom of voyage in the South China Sea, one of the busiest transport lanes in the world. US officials are also concerned about how China has expanded its military footprint by building and strengthening forward post bases and runways on small patches of land.
Jonathan Malaya, deputy director of the Philippine National Security Council, said Trump would not withdraw from the region. He pointed out that Trump's first administration introduced the phrase – “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
He added that Washington's financial commitment in the Philippines paled in comparison to the billions of dollars of aid it gave to Ukraine. He then emphasized that Trump never supported the Biden administration's position on the Ukrainian War. (On Tuesday, Trump appeared to have cooled tensions with Ukrainian President Volodimia Zelensky.)
In December, Trump spoke with the US ambassador of the Philippines, Jose Manuel Romaldez. He recalls meeting Mr. Marcos' mother, Imelda Marcos, several times, including a party in New York in the 1990s.
“You know, President Trump believes in personal relationships, so I was looking forward to meeting President Marcos at some point,” said Romaldez, Marcos' cousin.
Even before Trump's reelection, the Philippines moved to diversify its dependence on the US, signing a military cooperation agreement with Japan and New Zealand. It also increased this year's defense budget by 14% to $4.7 billion.
The Secretary of Defense Teodoro now wants to purchase tie-in missile systems from the United States to improve deterrence.
Beijing calls the plan “a great threat to peace and security.”
Trump's approach to the Philippines may depend on how his relationship with China's top leader Xi Jinping is unfolding.
“The destructive Trump can go either way, as the international orders after World War II have been turned upside down,” Lamas said.
Kamille Eremia contributed the report.
