President Trump vowed to end the fighting in Ukraine. Given that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin believes he is winning, it remains unclear how he can do it. But in his own blunt way, Trump has revealed the possibility of some sort of negotiation for a ceasefire.
Analysts say Trump is likely to set it up in Europe and ask Ukraine to take responsibility, wanting to reduce America's commitment if he reaches the contract. .
But there are still important questions. How can we secure the rest of Ukraine and prevent Putin from resuming the war even years from now?
The prospects for the trade have accelerated debate over so-called European boots on the ground to help maintain peace, monitor ceasefires and block Russia from future attacks. The question is who the boots, how many, and whether Putin agrees.
This is a central focus topic of discussion this week at this week's Munich Security Conference, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary Marcorubio going to be present.
Several European countries, including the Baltic nations, France and the British nations, have increased the likelihood of including their own troops in Ukrainian troops. High German officials are calling the idea early.
While Ukraine's NATO membership seems unlikely for many years, the idea of having a large number of European troops from NATO countries seems reckless to many officials and analysts.
Without a clear involvement in such operations, both in the US air force, air defense, intelligence, and human and technology, European troops are at serious risk from Russian investigations and attacks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows that he is ready to seriously discuss the deal to end the war, as long as his allies provide security as well as security assurances.
Without his favourite NATO membership, Zelensky talks about the 200,000 foreign troops on the ground in Ukraine. However, it is almost triple the size of the entire British army, and is considered impossible by analysts.
A senior European official said the continent does not even provide an army of 200,000 people and that boots on the ground must receive American support. Otherwise, they are permanently vulnerable to Russia's efforts to undermine the political and military credibility of the Alliance.
Even a more modest number of European soldiers, such as 40,000, is a difficult goal for the continent, with slow economic growth, a shortage of military forces, and the need to increase military spending for its own protection. And it would not be enough to provide a realistic deterrence against Russia.
Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus at King's College London, said normal deterrents would usually require “a force of over 100,000 assigned to the mission” for regular rotations and emergencies.
The danger would be the policy of Claudia Major, a defense expert at the German Institute of International Security, known as “Bluffs and Prayer.”
“Providing too few troops, or tripwire troops without reinforcement, is equivalent to a bluff that can invite Russia to test water, and NATO states can hardly counter this.” In her recent paper, she talks about Ald Kleemann, German Lieutenant Colonel and how to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine.
That is why Poland, a Ukrainian neighbour and deeply involved in its security, has so far rejected its participation in such a force.
“Poland understands that the US needs to be involved in such proposals, so we want to see what Trump wants to do,” says Alexandra De, acting director of the German Marshall Fund. “Someone said Hoop Schaefer. “We want to ensure that from Trump there is US security help to support Europeans on the frontline.”
But that's not clear at all, she said. “Trump makes a deal, seeks out the Nobel Prize and hopes that Europeans will pay it and carry it out,” she said.
Still, the “willingness to do something useful” for Ukraine, which does not have Americans, says that Europe will ultimately put a seat at the table, according to former Russian ambassador Anthony Brenton. It will be important to ensure.
Putin's goals remain the same. Ukraine's subordination to Russia, halting the expansion of NATO and reducing its forces will force the creation of a new buffer zone between the Western Alliance and the Russian belt of influence.
Also, even if Russia was there to train Ukrainian soldiers, there is no chance that they would agree to a contract with Ukrainian NATO or NATO military deployment. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already said that Ukrainian NATO forces are “decisively unacceptable” and an escalation.
Friedman described three possible models: peacekeeping, tripwire and deterrence. These have serious flaws.
Peacekeeping forces, which aimed to strengthen the agreed ceasefire and separate warriors, are lightly armed in self-defense, often including troops from many countries, usually under the United Nations. I'm here. However, given the Ukraine's line of contact is around 1,300 kilometers, or more than 800 miles, he said it needed “a huge army.”
Before the 2022 invasion, there was an international surveillance mission of European security and cooperative institutions, along with the Russian agreement, to oversee compliance with a much shorter ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine. It was a failure, said Michael Bociurkiw, a spokesman from 2014 to the age of 16.
“The Russians did everything to block the mission,” he said. “They worked together, restricted access and pretended to hide a variety of malicious activities. When things don't work the way they want them to, they close it down.”
The Tripwire force is essentially NATO deployed in eight member states closest to Russia. Although there is no sufficient army to stop the invasion or be considered provocative in Moscow, the concept is between troops on the ground and large reinforcements that promise to fight after the wires are stumbled It only works if there is a clear, unbreakable link.
However, the absolute nature of that guarantee is always questionable. And the attacking forces will acquire important territory before reinforcements arrive. Therefore, NATO itself has increased the size of its Tripwire forces, from battalions to brigade levels, and is increasing its deterrence against the newly aggressive Russia.
The third type, deterrent, is much more reliable, but must be very large and well equipped, with a well-equipped army of up to 150,000 people, plus air defense, intelligence report, weapons It requires a great commitment. Support for strategic enablers Europe continues to lack from air transport to satellites and missile defense.
But it would be difficult to imagine Russia agreeing to such power for the exact same reasons that Zelensky hopes, Friedman said.
Therefore, the best answer for the near future after a potential ceasefire could be the version of the “porcupine” model. Give the Ukrainian troops sufficient weapons, resources and training, including the western army, to persuade Russia not to try again. However, such commitments must be long-term.
However, the first Ukraine must stop Russia's slow progress in the east, and Putin must be certain to end the war with losses and economic pressure on the battlefield. The way to do that is one of the main tests for Trump to succeed in ending the murder.
