Astronomers on Tuesday said they predicted that the asteroid, designated as the 2024 YR4, has become the space rock most likely to affect planet Earth. The object first detected in December is 130-300 feet long and is expected to make a very close path to the planet in 2032. The current chances of affecting the Earth on December 22nd of that year are 3.1%.
This goes beyond the threat posed by Apophis, a much larger asteroid discovered in 2004. Astronomers calculated the likelihood of hitting the Earth at 2.7% in 2029. Further observations from Apophis have resulted in zero chances of shock at any time in the next generation. But the prospects were unsure for a while.
While the 2024 YR4 is much smaller than Apophis, small asteroids can still cause tremendous devastation. It depends heavily on where it enters the Earth's atmosphere.
The 2024 YR4 will not approach destroying the country, but it can directly hit and damage or destroy the city. And there's a very slim chance that it might be. Many of the estimated tracks of the object pass through the sky sea, but some impact locations are close to metropolitan cities such as Bogota, Lagos and Mumbai.
The kinetic energy of an asteroid is a proxy for how destructive its effects are. And the asteroid travels at almost the same speed – about 38,000 miles per hour – the important variable is its mass.
There are only a handful of observations to go for, and astronomers only have a range of masses for 2024. “We don't know how density or porous it is, so its mass, and therefore the energy released when it hits or explodes in the atmosphere, is uncertain,” the lab.
But in all cases, “The bigger it gets, the worse it is,” said Gales Collins, an asteroid impact expert at Imperial College in London. A slight increase in size leads to a huge leap in destructive possibilities. The rule of thumb is that when the asteroid's radius is doubled, it has eight times the velocity energy. A 300-foot asteroid deals much more damage than a 130-foot asteroid.
The composition is also important. For example, asteroids made primarily of iron will plunge deep into the atmosphere and deliver more harmful punches to the planet. However, the 2024 YR4 could be a statistically stone asteroid, and tends to fragment into smaller pieces as it is heated during the descent of the atmosphere.
But even the asteroid's airborne entrance can be extremely intense, even airbursts.
If the 2024 YR4 is large in stone and has a high probability of airburst at the estimated edge (130 feet), says Casslink Mamoto, head of the Planetary Defense Program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
“The main comparison point for the effects of stones of this size on asteroids is Tungska,” said Dr. Kumamoto. At the 1908 Tungska event, an asteroid similar to the 2024 YR4 exploded over Siberia's sparsely populated parts of the country. Unlike nuclear weapons that destroyed forests more than twice the size of New York City, they produced about 12 megatons of explosion waves.
Lorien Wheeler, an expert on the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA's Ames, said 130-foot rocks that explode over the open ocean or over the open ocean are “particularly concerned because they are unlikely to cause significant tsunamis.” It will never happen. California Research Center.
Airbursts above the city are even more uncomfortable. The windows explode inside, creating shotgun glass spray, and damage to the building is widespread. Some injuries can be life-threatening.
The angle at which the asteroid enters the atmosphere makes a difference. If you go straight down, you will get closer to the ground before it explodes, potentially causing more destruction. Intrusions at more gradual angles can explode at much higher altitudes.
If the 2024 YR4 turns out to be 300 feet long, the impact “can cause more serious damage,” says Michael Aftosmis, an expert on the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project.
Such asteroids “are particularly unlucky and if the angle of entry is steep, they are more likely to pass through the atmosphere,” Dr. Kumamoto said. “Some of them could remain relatively intact on the surface of the Earth.”
The impact in remote waters far from land will likely be much less risky, Dr. Kumamoto said. However, a splashdown next to the coastline can cause a tsunami that can inundate nearby land.
If this big version of 2024 hits solid ground, it could probably cut open two-thirds of a mile crater.
“Asteroids are going to cause a big explosion,” Dr. Boslow said. And the blast waves are surprisingly powerful. Multiple buildings around the crater sit down and become puny, bridges fold up, cars, trees and people throw in all directions. Dr. Bosrow also pointed out the possibility of a “hot jet of asteroid steam that descends to the surface and incinerates everything.”
People close to Ground Zero are very likely to die, he said. And people a few miles away are hit by waves of lightning, magnifying lightning. “People in the local area will be at risk of serious injuries,” Dr. Kumamoto said.
Experts said it is still unlikely that the 2024 YR4 will affect the planet in 2032. However, the extent of this shock result is why planetary defenders take this asteroid seriously.
