Ukrainian President Volodimia Zelensky has been lost at home for months, seen by many as a pale skin leader who concentrated his strength around him. Political opponents saw the opening to win future elections against him. His former top general in the war with Russia had a higher recognition rating.
Enter President Trump. Over the past few weeks, he has reflected Moscow's talk of war, calling Zelensky a “dreadful job” and a “no election dictator.” Trump and his allies have demanded a new presidential election in Ukraine despite the war and humiliated Zelensky at a disastrous White House meeting.
But Trump's actions seem to have helped the Ukrainian leader at home.
Two recent polls show Zelensky's approval rating has risen, and his political opponents have publicly said it's not the time for election. The proposals by political opponents and some analysts that Zelensky should share power and form a coalition government, a rival Ukrainian team, have not gained traction. And even if critics don't gather exactly around the president, they're not attacking him completely.
“Some people are hoping to criticize Zelensky,” said Petro Poroshenko, Ukrainian president and frequent Needler, Zelensky's predecessor, after an explosive meeting with Zelensky and Trump. “But no, there's no criticism, because that's not what the country needs right now.”
Zelensky is still in a precarious position. He must somehow diagram his path with the US president who clearly wants to deal with the Ukrainian leader.
Zelensky offered to resign in exchange for peace in NATO or Ukrainian membership. Political opponents agreed that the country could not vote during the war as it was unable to vote for the military abroad and Ukrainians. But given that Ukraine is to hold elections in the spring of 2024, if they reach a ceasefire, they will likely push it long before the final peace agreement is inked. And it appears that opposition politicians are supporting their time despite their desire for unity.
Trump put pressure on Zelensky ahead of a planned meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, when US and Ukrainian officials are to discuss measures that could lead to a peace deal with Russia. Trump last week suspended both US military aid and information sharing with Ukraine after a plan was concluded to share benefits from Ukraine's natural resources amid accusations at the White House meeting on February 28th.
On Sunday, an X post by Trump's billionaire ally Elon Musk updated Ukrainian fears that it might shut down the Starlink Internet system, which Musk called the “backbone of the Ukrainian army.” He added: “If I turn it off, their entire frontline will collapse,” he later said, “No matter how much I disagree with Ukrainian policies, Starlink will never turn off the terminal.”
Analysts said the White House meeting was perhaps the biggest crisis Zelensky has faced since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. Several people said there's probably nothing Zelensky could do because Trump was on the line with Russia. However, others have suggested several ways to Mr Zelensky. They will appoint official negotiators to deal with Trump, establish a more comprehensive coalition government, and use translators.
Kyiv political scientist Yevhen Mahda said he showed the world and the US that Zelensky could adapt if he built a “coalition of victory from separate parties that unite with professional appointees” on behalf of his political allies.
Dmytro Razumkov, a politician who left Zelensky's party in 2021 and currently leads the opposition group in Congress, said that such a coalition should have been formed when the war began, but the president did not want to cooperate with the enemy.
“He's not listening to other perspectives,” said Razumkov, who announced his plans to run for president, but also opposed holding elections until a peace deal was reached. “He can't hear them. He can't work with other parties or other ideas.”
However, members of Zelensky's party and some analysts have rejected the coalition's idea.
“These opposition parties will not focus on how Ukraine or the country supports,” said Volodimia Fesenko, the leading political analyst here. “They will focus on future elections, and all of these opposition politicians have a very large level of national distrust.”
There are indications that Zelensky is about to hear a variety of voices. For example, General Valerie Zarziny, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief for the first two years of the war, will likely be Zelensky's most powerful opponent. He has rarely been spoken publicly since being appointed British ambassador last March, effectively watching him by the sidelines despite polls showing he is more popular than Mr Zelensky.
However, on Thursday, Zalzney gave a speech in London where he accused the United States of destroying the world order. Political analysts said Zaluzhny would never have given the speech if Zelensky had not agreed to it.
Some politicians and analysts described Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance as bullies at the White House meeting, but some have focused on Zelensky, suggesting that the Ukrainian president has benefited from using interpreters.
While he spoke English at a conversational level, the interpreter would have given him additional time to weigh his responses, Mahda said.
Razkov, a politician who left Zelensky's party, said he thought there might be a misunderstanding of the language between the two sides. “This whole conversation was wrong from the start,” he said.
The date of the presidential election seems to be an emotional goal. If a ceasefire contract is reached, Trump will likely push for a new election, even before he steals the peace deal.
If today's elections were held, Zalzny and Zelensky would likely be top candidates.
On Friday, the Kiev Institute for International Sociology published a poll showing Zelensky's confidence level rose from 57% in the first half of February to 67% when relations between Ukraine and the US worsened between February 14 and March 4. Another poll showed a similar jump, while two other recent polls showed a similar approval rating by Zelensky. (Although recognition and trust ratings are not the same as election ratings, they show just how popular the different leaders of the country are.)
Zelensky's assessment may have jumped because it rallied around the flag, not for the president himself. Zelensky also saw a major clash in his approval rating after a full-scale Russian invasion.
Poroshenko, who lost to Zelensky in 2019, and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymosenko, have shown they will run in future elections. Both met with Trump's team. Tymoshenko traveled to Washington around Trump's January oath and attended his first event. Zelensky did not attend the inauguration ceremony, but reportedly sent an ally.
After Politico reported last week at a meeting with Trump's allies and Ukrainian politicians or their representatives, Tymoshenko and Poroshenko denied trying to kick the president out, saying they opposed the election while the fight continued. Tymoshenko said her team is “talking to all allies who can help just ensure peace as quickly as possible.” Poroshenko said his team spoke to US officials and opposed Trump's demands for wartime elections.
The United States and Ukraine continue to negotiate both possible natural resource transactions and peace agreements. “The most intensive work to date is underway with President Trump's team on many levels, on many calls,” Zelensky said on Friday.
In at least one way, Zelensky chooses to delicately navigate the path ahead. On Tuesday, senior members of his team are scheduled to hold their first in-person meeting with US officials since the White House meeting. They will meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss laying the foundations for a peace agreement.
Zelensky also traveled to Saudi Arabia. But soon he leaves – before the meeting with the US begins.
Oleksandra Mykolyshyn contributed to reporting from Kyiv and Kenneth P. Vogel of Washington.
